英國圣安德魯斯大學(xué) (University of St Andrews)：謝佩島機(jī)場終端能力，飛機(jī)起降時段及貨運(yùn)概述

Terminal capacity and shortfall
終端能力和不足

However, it is clear that in the South East demand outstrips capacity. Using Scenario s02, the maximum capacity of the London airports is shown in Table 1: (4)
然而，很顯然，在東南方的需求超過容量。 （4）使用情景S02，倫敦機(jī)場的最大容量，如表1所示：

The other airports in the South East currently have a combined passenger volume of ~2mppa and a potential capacity of 3 times that, however many of these airports service local markets more than the larger London market and as such are unlikely to take on the extra demand in the same way as the 5 London airports will.
在南方地區(qū)的其他機(jī)場目前有合并載客量?2mppa和潛在的能力的3倍，然而，許多這些機(jī)場的服務(wù)當(dāng)?shù)厥袌龀^較大的倫敦市場，因此不大可能采取額外需求在相同的方式中的5倫敦機(jī)場。

However, if we assume these other South East airports will service 6mppa by 2030, this gives us a total capacity of 200mppa with the current airport infrastructure.
然而，如果我們假設(shè)這些其他東南亞的機(jī)場服務(wù)6mppa到2030年，這為我們提供了總?cè)萘繛?00mppa目前機(jī)場基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

The estimate of demand for 265mppa by 2030 means that a new airport with adequate transport links in a sensible location – so as to serve as a ‘London airport’ – could be expected to serve a minimum 65mppa by 2030 if all other airports were at capacity – a 24.5% share of the South East. Given that we have used the most recent forecasts (mid-level figures) with a maximum usage scenario, this gives us a safe lower bound for demand.
鑒于我們已經(jīng)使用了最新的預(yù)測（中間級人物）與最大使用量的情況下，這給了我們一個安全的需求下限。

However depending on the location of the airport, it may be expected to take an additional share of passengers from other London airports. A modest 3-5% additional share would mean, on average, an additional 10mppa using the new airport - 75mppa in 2030.
但是，根據(jù)機(jī)場的位置上，它可能會采取額外的股份乘客從倫敦其他機(jī)場。一個溫和的3-5％的額外股份將意味著，平均而言，在2030年一個的附加10mppa使用新機(jī)場 - 75mppa。  http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/

In addition, with air travel growth set to continue after 2030, while it may no longer be safe to assume no further development of other South East airports, to be feasible this new airport would be expected to maintain at minimum its 28-30% share of the South East market. This would equate to in excess of 200mppa by 2050, which may not be a realistic figure for a new London airport but shows that future expansion of the new airport is likely to be viable in terms of passenger demand.#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#
此外，隨著航空旅行的增長將繼續(xù)在2030年之后，雖然它可能不再是安全的，不承擔(dān)任何其他東南機(jī)場的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展，是可行的這個新機(jī)場將有望保持在最低的28-30％份額東南亞市場。

Runway slots
飛機(jī)起降時段

In 2009, the average number of passengers per commercial flight at the five London airports was 128, while at the other South East airports this figure was much lower at 30, due to the significant proportion of local and smaller flights. (6)
2009年，五個倫敦機(jī)場的商業(yè)航班乘客每平均數(shù)為128，而在其他東南亞機(jī)場，這個數(shù)字低得多，在30℃，由于本地和較小航班顯著比例。（6）

However with increasing demand comes a change in both available aircraft size and in the proportion those aircraft are filled. This is not often taken into account in many forecasts.

Since 1990, average passenger numbers on commercial flights in the South East has increased by 1% per year, (6) and with a shortage of available runway slots in the South East this trend is expected to continue. Currently most operators on average across the year still run with some capacity on flights, and we are therefore likely to see larger numbers of full aircraft. In addition, while recently low cost airlines (that rarely use the largest aircraft) have taken a proportion of market share, many major operators are being seen to invest in new larger aircraft such as the Airbus A380 and the forthcoming Boeing Dreamliner.
此外，在最近的低成本航空公司（很少使用最大的飛機(jī)）已經(jīng)采取了比例的市場份額，許多主要的運(yùn)營商都被視為投資于新的大型飛機(jī)，如空客A380和即將推出的波音客機(jī)。

By 2030, therefore the average number of passengers per commercial flight in and out of London airports may have potentially increased to 150-160. A terminal throughput of 75mppa therefore also equates to forecast requirement for 470,000 to 500,000 runway slots (take-offs and landings) for commercial passenger aircraft per year in the South East.

Freight
貨運(yùn)

In 2009 total UK air freight was 2.05 million tonnes and London’s airports accounted for 76% of this volume. [CAA Freight 2009] While, due to the global economic recession, this actually represents a 7% reduction on levels 10 years earlier, the volume air freight is expected to increase around 3-fold over the next 20 years. (5)
在2009年英國空運(yùn)為205萬噸和倫敦的機(jī)場占76％，本卷。 [CAA貨運(yùn)2009]同時，由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，這實(shí)際上減少了7％，10年前的水平，成交量空運(yùn)預(yù)計在未來20年增加3倍左右。 （5）

While freight does not generally have a direct impact on terminal throughput, it is a contributor to demand for runway capacity. With Heathrow’s and Gatwick’s runways both operating at near capacity, freight traffic has moved to other airports such as Stansted and Birmingham (5). Anticipated freight demand at the London airports is shown below, with a forecast for freight demand at a new London airport and continued significant use of Stansted: (5)#p#分頁標(biāo)題#e#
預(yù)計在倫敦機(jī)場的貨運(yùn)需求如下圖所示，在新倫敦機(jī)場的貨運(yùn)需求預(yù)測和繼續(xù)大量使用斯坦斯特德：（5）

Another important factor is that the express parcel sector is expected to increase its share from 20% in 1998 to more than half of total air freight. (5) The short delivery times associated with these packages are likely to increase the demand for night flights. Therefore, as well as being able to cope with additional demand for runway slots, any new airport would benefit from 24-hour flight operation by being able to support this express parcel demand.
另一個重要因素是，快遞包裹部門預(yù)計將增加其份額從1998年的20％，空運(yùn)總量的一半以上。 （5）

Therefore 500,000 runway slots would need to be serviced by 2030. This could be achievable with widely-spaced (>1000m) two runway scheme and the latest technology in aircraft traffic management. (2) Supporting additional capacity in the future will require further development and the addition of one or two runways at later stage (2040).
因此，500,000飛機(jī)起降時段，到2030年將需要進(jìn)行維修。這可能是實(shí)現(xiàn)廣泛間距（>1000米），兩個跑道方案和航空交通管理的最新技術(shù)。 （2）支持額外的容量在未來將需要進(jìn)一步發(fā)展和另外一個或兩個跑道后期（2040）。