臺(tái)灣大學(xué)National Taiwan University:后危機(jī)時(shí)代發(fā)展技術(shù)出口的思考

First, the technology export trade friction will break through the tight encirclement of the important path?

一、技術(shù)出口將是我國(guó)沖破貿(mào)易摩擦重圍的重要路徑? 

Post-crisis era is gradually easing as the crisis enters a relatively stable period. However, due to the inherent crisis has not or can not be completely resolved, leaving other aspects of the world economy, there are still a lot of uncertainty and instability. With the easing of the international financial crisis, the Chinese enterprises are facing originally anticipated international trade protectionist pressures but did not reduce, but showing a growing trend. According to the Commerce Department said in August 2010, our country has suffered from 17 countries or regions from 48 cases of trade remedy investigations, involving the total amount of $ 6.48 billion. Since 2010, the United States has launched 337 investigations against Chinese products 13 cases, compared with the year 2009, an increase of 62.5%, and the number of cases is rising. In addition to the above measures, there are other products for the Chinese trade protection measures. It is worth noting that these trade frictions not only from Europe, America, and quite a few from developing countries, which indicates that trade frictions against China is moving from developed to developing countries diffusion . 

后危機(jī)時(shí)代是指隨著危機(jī)的逐漸緩和而進(jìn)入相對(duì)平穩(wěn)期。但是由于固有的危機(jī)并沒(méi)有或是不可能完全解決，而使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)等方面仍存在著很多的不確定性和不穩(wěn)定性。隨著國(guó)際金融危機(jī)的緩和，原本預(yù)期的中國(guó)企業(yè)面臨的國(guó)際貿(mào)易保護(hù)壓力卻并沒(méi)有減輕，反而呈現(xiàn)出愈演愈烈之勢(shì)。據(jù)商務(wù)部透露，2010年前8月，我國(guó)共遭遇來(lái)自17個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)的貿(mào)易救濟(jì)調(diào)查案48起，總涉案金額64.8億美元。2010年以來(lái)，美國(guó)已對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)品發(fā)起337調(diào)查13起，較2009年全年增加62.5%，且案件數(shù)量還在不斷上升。除了上述措施外，還有其他針對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易保護(hù)措施。值得注意的是，這些貿(mào)易摩擦不僅來(lái)自歐美，還有相當(dāng)一部分來(lái)自發(fā)展中國(guó)家，這表明針對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易摩擦正從發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家向發(fā)展中國(guó)家擴(kuò)散.

On the formation of the reasons for this situation is as follows:

First, the financial crisis facing the global economy further adjustment, the international financial order is changing, trade protectionism, slowing international capital flows, national economy will face a long period of low growth, developing countries pay more attention to internal and external balance, through restructuring to find new competitive advantages. While China's economy has recovered and maintained a high growth rate, foreign trade continued high surpluses. 2009 China's trade surplus to a $ 96.07 billion in 2010, from January to May trade surplus of $ 35.39 billion. Therefore, China's exports of manufactured goods can easily become the main objective of global trade protectionism. #p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

一是金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨再調(diào)整，國(guó)際金融秩序也正在改變，貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義抬頭，國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)速度放緩，各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將面臨一段較長(zhǎng)的低增長(zhǎng)期，各國(guó)更加注重內(nèi)外均衡發(fā)展，通過(guò)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整尋求新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。而我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)得到恢復(fù)并保持著較高的增速，對(duì)外貿(mào)易持續(xù)大量順差。2009年我國(guó)貿(mào)易順差為1 960.7億美元，2010年1—5月貿(mào)易順差為353.9億美元。因此，我國(guó)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品出口很容易成為全球貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義的主要目標(biāo)。

Second, with the growing number of developing countries into the economic globalization, participation in the international division of labor, in some industries and developing industrial homogeneity firmer, the competition was extended. The original advantage of labor-intensive industries are being challenged from these countries, some of the relative competitiveness of industries in decline, exports of these products, and some developing countries are rising competition and trade frictions. Moreover, the financial crisis, developed countries proposed to revitalize the manufacturing sector, some countries have pledged to reduce by expanding exports to domestic trade deficit, which makes our high-end products face direct competition in developed countries, the most typical case is September 16, 2010, the European Commission launched data cards to China again countervailing investigations, involving an amount of approximately $ 4.1 billion. http://ukthesis.org/jr

Third, China's export growth has not free themselves from the increasing number of expansion and extensive growth mode, export quality, structure and efficiency are to be further improved. This is mainly reflected in: a lower level of export products; own brand exports less; export price is not high, the terms of trade is deteriorating. At present, China's foreign trade growth mode mainly rely on price competition and quantitative expansion, and seriously affect China's trade structure optimization. China has a comparative advantage in export industries are mainly: textiles, footwear, leather and other labor-intensive industries in the international division of labor in most low-end industrial chain. Although in recent years, China's exports of electromechanical and high-tech product exports accounted for a large proportion, but is still low value-added sectors, high-tech products are mainly derived from the processing trade. 

Fourth, the structure of China's trade imbalance, is unreasonable. For a long time, China's trade in goods, trade in services and technology trade three parts can not be synchronized development, foreign trade is still mainly rely on trade in goods. Although in recent years, rapid development of China's service trade, between 2005 and 2009, total import and export trade in services from? 1,571 billion to $ 2,868 billion, an increase of about 1.8 times the average annual increase of 16.2%. China's service exports in the world ranking from eighth place in 2005, rose to fifth place in 2009. However, China still lags behind the overall trade in services trade in goods, services, foreign trade exports accounted for the proportion of total exports remained at around 9%, lower than the global average. And our technology trade development is lagging behind, especially in technology exports accounted for the proportion of China's foreign trade is very low in order to permit trade technology exports, for example, in 2009 the exclusive right to use and license fees exports only 400 million U.S. dollars, accounting services trade exports of 0.3%; compared with other countries, in 2007 the exclusive right to use and license fees exports, the United States was $ 28.61 billion, Japan $ 23.22 billion, the United Kingdom was $ 15.13 billion, while China is only $ 340 million Data is based on the Ministry of Commerce Trade in Services Division website data collation. Export of technology with these countries have very different levels of development, and China's largest trading nation status very inconsistent. #p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

In view of the problems encountered in the development of foreign trade, we must re-examine the future development path of China's export trade. "Twelve Five" plan is the core of foreign trade structure adjustment, transformation of foreign trade growth mode, then you should pay more attention to the quality of growth, further weakening the quantitative indicators. Including technology to develop trade, including trade in services, and actively promote the technology, especially technology export licensing trade, improve patent, proprietary technology and the exclusive right to use the trademark and license fees accounted for the proportion of China's export trade, making China's foreign trade develop a qualitative change, breaking the international trade protectionism against Chinese products in Ex. 

Second, technology export industries, trade and income effects: In developed countries, for example?

1 Effects of technology export industries?

Since the 1960s and 1970s, worldwide industrial structure has changed significantly, there has been the focus of industrial structure gradually to the information industry and knowledge-based industries such as so-called "fourth estate," the phenomenon of migration. To adapt the developed labor and capital-intensive industries have been gradually information, knowledge and technology-intensive industries replaced manufacturing output and employment declining proportion of the service sector in the national economy and share continue proportion increases, showing a high-tech industrial structure, Convergence, internationalization, and service-oriented features. In the United States, the U.S. manufacturing output declining, and its share of GDP by the Second World War, 40% down to 13.9% in 2002, the highest employment rose from 35% to about 10% in 2005. Because of its multinational technology and its production processes will subcontract or even completely out of production, there has been a "virtual manufacturing phenomenon", such as Nike air cushion system in addition to the most critical foreign entirely by external provider, Adidas Company has transferred 95% of the manufacturing sector to other countries, GE clearly put forward to by the manufacturing company into a diversified services company. According to the U.S. Commerce Department statistics, about 2,500 U.S. companies will manufacture and transfer of technology abroad. In this transformation, the developed countries in particular, foreign direct investment from multinationals and accompanied by the transfer of technology to promote the worldwide industrial structure changes. 

20 In the late 1980s, the Japanese economy continues to grow rapidly in the context of the yen appreciates sharply, along with a large number of technology transfer, the Japanese foreign direct investment in an unprecedented rapid development. In 1990, Japan's foreign direct investment reached 50.5 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for the world's total foreign direct investment of 21.6%. Japanese foreign direct investment showing a diversity of purposes, for example, expanding foreign trade, the establishment of international production and sales network, access to cheap resources or the use of the host country and factors of production, exports to third countries and sold back to Japan, and so on. Which the establishment of international production and sales network has become an important new investment purposes. Japan's industrial restructuring in order to meet its needs, the production of low value-added products and labor-intensive, resource consuming industries and technology transfer to other countries, especially developing countries, in the country to focus on high value-added products, high-tech products production and development, and ultimately benefit Japan's international division of labor [1].#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

(2) on the export of technology to improve the trade structure?

Since the 1970s and 1980s, developed countries have started to trade structure adjustment, universal attention to technology transfer and export trade. Developed trade structure adjustment of the basic characteristics: First, export of technology has accelerated, two high-tech exports of technology exports, including exports of high technology products and the increased proportion of high-tech services. As early as the 1970s, the developed structure of export trade began to develop in the direction technology exports. To the mid-1980s, with the development of high-tech industries, major developed countries have accelerated the pace of technology exports. For example, in 1975, U.S. technology exports $ 43 billion, France $ 1.96 billion, $ 3.08 billion in Germany, the United Kingdom $ 4.93 billion, Japan $ 2.24 billion; to 1985, respectively, U.S. $ 65.5 billion, France $ 5.09 billion, Germany $ 5.04 billion, $ 9.68 billion the United Kingdom, Japan, $ 9,820,000,000; By 1993, the United States has reached 2 $ 03.98 billion, France $ 16.5 billion, Germany $ 15.6 billion, Japan $ 36 billion. Between 1975 and 1985 among the major industrial countries technology exports average increase of 73.1%, while between 1985-1993, the average growth rate of technology exports reached 206.5% [2], until now, the developed technology exports still account for World Technology exports more than 80%. 

3 Technical exporters gain effect?

Transfer of technology, transfer of technology will bring many side benefits: First, it will bring considerable income returns, and even higher than the transferor's own normal rate of return. Second, the transferor companies to maintain their market share and competitiveness. Third, through the transfer of technology to extend the company's business conduct to the state and the market is not perfect, because all of the effects of diversification and reduce overall risk. Fourth, through the transfer of technology developed countries or regions, you can make the transferor to obtain or maintain a high rate of business value. Fifth, the transferor can take advantage of the recipient country's capital market, so that the lower cost to obtain some funding sources, channels, more diverse. 

We use the famous "Gordon growth model", ie the stock assessment model to explain the transfer of technology to the enterprise benefits. The company's stock value (P) is equal to the stock's expected dividend yield (D? 1) and investors, the required rate of return (k) and dividend appreciation rate (g) the ratio of the difference, the complete formula is: P = D? 1 / (k-g). All of the above transfer of technology can bring about the following five benefits: First, help to increase the value of P, ie, the transferor company's stock value, thus increasing the value of the stock of wealth holders. For example, in the transferor enterprises to obtain better returns, will be able to pay more dividends, and its business has also been more rapid growth. These will help to achieve a higher stock value. Second, technology transfer is essentially a defensive role, you can block D? 1 and g in the business decline, in turn, can prevent the company's stock value of P decline. Third, that reduce risk or diversification makes investors reduced, the required rate of return k, which will also lead the company stock value of P increases. Fourth, that increases by increasing the value of g P values. Fifth, by reducing the k value to increase P-value (the diversification of funding sources), or by increasing the stocks expected dividend yield D? 1 value, to increase the Company's share value P (due to lower financing costs). Therefore, when an enterprise discovery technology transfer will be more good than harm, or the benefits outweigh the costs will actively use its skills are not involved in the transfer of technology developed countries or regions to go.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

 

Third, China's export of technology development characteristics

Means of technology exports from the PRC to the outside of the PRC, through trade, investment, economic and technical cooperation or technology transfer behavior. Include: transfer of patent rights, patent implementation license, proprietary technology transfer, trademark licensing, computer software licenses, as well as technical consulting and technical services. Major trading methods are: licensed trade, technology consulting and technology services, processing trade, foreign direct investment, and high-tech products and equipment exports. Among them, the licensing trade is the most basic form of technology trade, mainly around the exclusive right to use and franchising. With the introduction of various technologies, China's technology exports started late, it can be said that after the reform and opening began to develop. From 1980-2010, 30 years, China's export of technology has undergone rapid development from the exploration stage to stage. 

1 of the three stages of development technology exports?

The first phase (1980-1985) is the exploratory phase, which is characterized mainly: unplanned, spontaneous manner. Exports, mainly to new technologies, new technology and other technology-based software; industrial countries as the main exporting countries; countries do not have a clear centralized management, management regulations and the appropriate encouragement, support policies; technology exports is very small, an annual turnover of approximately 1000 million. ?

The second phase (1986-1995) is the initial stage of development, its main features are: determining the centralized management, technology export policy, the approval authority and procedures. This phase began and organized management technology export work, the amount and variety of exports increased year by year, technology export-led project to increase the export of complete sets of equipment, exports expanded to developing country regions. 

The third phase (1996 - present) is a rapid development stage, this stage, China's technology export trade developed rapidly, especially in science and technology started in 1999 trade strategy, so that our high-tech industry quickly developed, high-tech Exports exports gradually become a new force. During this period, technical consulting and licensing trade has also been some development. According to Commerce Department statistics, in 1997 China's exports to obtain the exclusive right to use and license fees only 5 $ 5,000,000, technical consultancies $ 346 million, to 2009, these two amounts were $ 400 million, and $ 18.6 billion, is 7.27 times in 1997 and 53.76 times. 

2 The current main features of our technology exports?

(A) the development of technology exports short time pattern of trade is unreasonable. In recent years, China's high-tech development quickly became the main export of technology, consulting services and rapid growth in technology exports continued to rise in the proportion. In contrast, China's trade exclusive licensing rights to use and license fees, though growing, but in the technology export and trade in the proportion of the entire service has changed little. For example, 13 years from 1997 to 2009, China's exclusive right to use and license fees accounted for the proportion of total trade in services was 0.2% in six years, six years was 0.3%, and 1 year was 0.4%, basically no improvement. The data is based on the Ministry of Commerce Trade in Services Division released statistics calculated. 2009, China's exclusive right to use fees and royalties exports 400 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 0.3% of services exports; imports of $ 11.1 billion, accounting for trade in services imports 7% of the $ 10.7 billion deficit, and has become second only to transportation services, the second largest in the services trade deficit industries. #p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

(2) In general, a considerable part of our technology exports from foreign-funded enterprises, especially of high-tech exports, foreign exports is much higher than state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. For example, in 2010 in the first half of the high-tech exports, foreign exports amounted to a $ 81.46 billion, accounting for 83.5% of the total; SOEs exports 15.25 billion U.S. dollars, the total amounted to 7.0%. Exports of foreign-funded enterprises is much higher than the state-owned enterprises and other enterprises and is the main body technology exports.