英國(guó)蘭卡斯特大學(xué) (Lancaster University)：關(guān)于對(duì)謝佩島機(jī)場(chǎng)是在原有基礎(chǔ)上擴(kuò)大還是新建一個(gè)機(jī)場(chǎng)的論述

Airport expansion or a new airport
擴(kuò)大機(jī)場(chǎng)還是建一個(gè)新機(jī)場(chǎng)

Supplementary to the discussion of further provision of air travel capacity is the two competing views of whether this capacity should come from further expansion of current airports or development of an entirely new location, or both.
補(bǔ)充討論進(jìn)一步提供空中旅游接待能力是兩個(gè)對(duì)立的觀點(diǎn)，是否應(yīng)該來自這方面的能力進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大目前的機(jī)場(chǎng)或開發(fā)一個(gè)全新的位置，或兩者兼而有之。

Always the most important advantage to expansion of current assets is the cost, which is generally significantly cheaper than building a new airport outright. In addition, in terms of both cost and timescales, the current transport and services infrastructure can be used and upgraded, and new capacity can more easily be built into current air traffic routes and management. Expansion avoids major changes in airports’ market share and it is better supported by the current airport operators. In addition, frequently expansion proposals suggest lower environmental impacts.
擴(kuò)大流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)總是最重要的優(yōu)勢(shì)是成本，通常是明顯比建設(shè)一個(gè)新機(jī)場(chǎng)徹頭徹尾的便宜。此外，在成本和時(shí)間尺度，目前的運(yùn)輸和服務(wù)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，可以使用和升級(jí)，新的產(chǎn)能更容易被內(nèi)置到目前的空中交通航線和管理。

The other viewpoint is that construction of an entirely new airport may allow full control over potential scale and hence a new airport will obviously be able to better cope with higher levels of demand. This in turn will have a better effect of the UK’s economic value and status. Building from new will allow from the beginning integration of the most sustainable design, will help reduce air traffic flying directly over London, and can be better planned to allow for future expansion. In addition, new projects will be tied to transport upgrades, local regeneration and possible renewable energy provision. All this however comes at a significantly greater cost, which must be offset by the greater potential for demand.
另一種觀點(diǎn)是，建設(shè)一個(gè)全新的機(jī)場(chǎng)可能超過潛在規(guī)模，并允許完全控制，因此新機(jī)場(chǎng)將顯然能夠更好地應(yīng)對(duì)更高層次的需求。英國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值和地位反過來，這將有較好的療效。

This proposal looks only at the feasibility of new airport, though it is anticipated further expansion of current airports will be likely in the long-term to supplement this.
這一提議看起來只有在新機(jī)場(chǎng)的可行性，盡管預(yù)計(jì)將有可能進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，目前的機(jī)場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期補(bǔ)充。

Forecasts
預(yù)測(cè)

Many forecasts in demand for air travel have been made over the past decades to assess air travel demand over the coming decades. The wide range of figures have in the past enabled some previous airport feasibility reports to use the most favourable figures for their particular goal. The Department for Transport (DfT) and Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) figures are the key source of data used in this report.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#
在過去的幾十年里已作出了許多航空旅行的需求預(yù)測(cè)，在未來幾十年。評(píng)估航空旅行需求。

Passengers
乘客

In the past ten years the DfT has made 3 major assessments of future demand for air travel.
在過去的十年中，DFT已經(jīng)由3個(gè)主要評(píng)估未來對(duì)航空旅行的需求。

In 2003, the DfT’s White Paper “The Future of Air Transport” estimated unconstrained demand for air travel, which assumes no limits to potential airport expansion or development, to be 400-600 million passengers per annum (mppa). (2) In 2007 in the DfT’s “UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts”, unconstrained demand in 2030 was re-estimated as 495mppa in the mid-level scenario. (5) In January 2009 the new report of the same name estimated unconstrained mid-level demand in 2030 to be 465mppa, with the growth pattern over the next 20 years assumed to be on average 7% lower than forecast in 2003 (4).
在2003年的DFT白皮書“航空運(yùn)輸?shù)奈磥?rdquo;，估計(jì)對(duì)航空旅行的需求，假定沒有限制潛在的機(jī)場(chǎng)擴(kuò)建或發(fā)展，是每年400-600萬人次（MPPA）不受約束。 （2）在2007年的DFT的“英國(guó)航空乘客的需求和CO2預(yù)測(cè)”，不受約束的需求在2030年重新估計(jì)495mppa在中級(jí)情況。 （5）2009年1月新報(bào)告的同名估計(jì)不受約束的中等水平，2030年需求超過假定為平均7％，低于2003（4）預(yù)測(cè)，未來20年的增長(zhǎng)模式，是465mppa。

Figure 2

These updated forecasts take into account new government budgets, GDP projections, oil prices and the latest aviation data. The 2009 forecasts also look as far as 2050, where demand is thought to reach 737mppa.  http://ukthesis.org/dissertation_sample/

More important for this study however is the forecast demand in the South East as the key market for the proposed airport is anticipated to be predominantly South East residents and tourists. In the 2003 forecast report more than half of this demand in 2030 was forecast to be for airports in the South East, with an estimated unconstrained demand of 301mppa. (5)

However, the 2009 forecast estimates unconstrained demand for the South East as 265mppa by 2030 (while the ‘maximum usage’ constrained scenario predicts 243mppa in 2030 but this figure only applies in the case of no new airport development). (4) In 2050 the unconstrained demand is thought to be in excess of 420mppa in the South East. (4)

The latest CAA data gives the current proportion of UK air travel demand taken by South East airports as 60%. (1) However this value is expected to fall as the South East nears capacity and other airports take some of the excess. If no further development at South East airports is permitted over the next 20 years, this will fall to 45% by 2030. (5) However, if significant development is enabled in the South East to cope with demand, this proportion may return to 55% to 60%. It can be seen the 2009 DfT forecast assumes a figure of around 57%.#p#分頁(yè)標(biāo)題#e#

The current major airports in the South East are the London airports of Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, London City. There are also the second tier South East airports of Southampton, Norwich, Manston, Southend, Kidlington, Cambridge, Shoreham, Lydd; and other minor airports at Farnborough, Biggin Hill, Cliffe Marshes, Alconbury.
目前主要在東南機(jī)場(chǎng)是倫敦的希思羅機(jī)場(chǎng)，蓋特威克機(jī)場(chǎng)，斯坦斯特德，盧頓，倫敦金融城。

We base the figures used in this report on these latest 2009 figures, adjusted for the recent dip in air traffic due to the global recession. We assume that in the case of a major new London airport it is unlikely there would be major expansion work at current airports in the South East. Rather, instead we also assume that all current major airports will be operating at a maximum theoretical capacity for their current set-up in 2030. This therefore allies with the ‘Scenario s02’ in the 2009 figures. (4)
我們立足本報(bào)告中使用的數(shù)字，這些最新的2009年的數(shù)字，調(diào)整為最近的空中交通由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中暢游。我們假設(shè)，在一個(gè)重要的新倫敦機(jī)場(chǎng)的情況下，這是不太可能會(huì)有重大的擴(kuò)建工作，目前在東南機(jī)場(chǎng)。

In practice it is more likely that there will be some development at these current airports, and that without these developments the maximum capacity could not be easily achieved, but the ‘Scenario s02’ capacity gives at least the best conservative figures for our forecast.
在實(shí)踐中很可能會(huì)有一些在這些電流機(jī)場(chǎng)的發(fā)展，并沒有這些發(fā)展的最大容量可以很容易實(shí)現(xiàn)，但我們的預(yù)測(cè)情景S02的能力至少給出最保守的數(shù)字。